Scouting Reports

[Grant]

Please post only scouting reports from reputable sources. We are not looking for the "I was at the game once and that dude was awesome" variety.

Also, please indicate the players position and what level he is (A, AA, AAA).

[scott]

LHP Martin Perez - AAA

Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; curveball and change-up that are developing into plus pitches

Ground balls. Strikeouts. Outstanding control for an 18-year-old. Plus fastball and two potentially plus secondary pitches. And he's left-handed. Everything about Martin Perez's profile screams top-of-the-rotation pitcher (or TORP, for short).

After ranking Perez the No. 1 prospect in the South Atlantic League (SAL) in 2009, Baseball America will likely rank the young left-hander among the top 25 prospects in baseball entering 2010.

Perez had five starts in the Double-A Texas League and, after getting knocked around a bit in his first start, held his own (3.50 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, and .280 BAA) against hitters who were, on average, six years older than he.

"Fair or not, there seemed to be only one apt comparison for the SAL's youngest pitcher: Johan Santana. Everything from Perez's frame to his delivery mimic Santana. What's more, both are Venezuelan lefthanders who sit at 92-94 mph and touch 96 [mph] with their fastballs. By improving his change-up to a plus pitch, Perez took another step to support the Santana comparisons. He's confident enough to throw the change-up in any count and utilizes great hand speed to create deception. He also throws a sharp, late-breaking curveball at 75-78 mph.

[scott]

1B Justin Smoak - AAA


Stuff: Switch-hitter with excellent on-base skills and power, good hands and footwork at first base, relatively slow runner

Baseball America rated Smoak the second-best prospect in the Texas League and the ninth-best prospect in the Pacific Coast League, and will likely rank him among the top 20 prospects in baseball entering 2010.

Despite struggling after returning from an oblique injury and a promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City, Smoak still finished 2009 with almost as many walks as strikeouts and an on-base percentage north of .400. His slugging percentage was much better before his injury (.489 vs. .356) and should return in 2010.

If there is a chink in the armor, it is Smoak's relative ineffectiveness against left-handed pitchers (.211/.302/.328 in 116 at-bats in 2009).

"A complete hitter who should hit for both average and power, Smoak shows a great deal of confidence at the plate. He's patient and shows a good approach and pitch recognition. Smoak has Gold Glove potential at first base but is a below-average runner who never will be an asset on the bases." (Will Lingo, Baseball America)

[scott]

RHP Tanner Scheppers - AA

Stuff: Mid-to-upper-90s fastball; plus curveball, slider, and change-up

When he can consistently command his fastball and curveball, Scheppers figures to have two plus pitches at his disposal. Whether he can add a usable change-up will likely determine whether he becomes a starter or a closer in the major leagues.

Scheppers' fastball doesn't have a lot of movement, especially when he leaves it up in the strike zone. Improved command will allow him to pitch low in the zone and provide a nice downward trajectory due to his high release point.

Scheppers' one weakness in college was his control, as he walked nearly four hitters per nine innings including 4.3 BB/9 as a junior at Fresno State. He walked four batters in 11 innings during his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League.

"Tanner Scheppers, a supplemental pick by the Texas Rangers this year who signed for first-round money, was even more impressive than [Andrew] Cashner, sitting at 95-98 [mph] with a vicious curveball with hard, late two-plane break. He appeared to be amped up for the short outing; I doubt he'd sit at that velocity as a starter, but even 92-95 [mph] with that breaking ball would get hitters out multiple times per game. His arm works well, and his potential to be a front-line starter is really just a question of the state of his shoulder."

Keith Law likes what he saw in the Arizona Fall League: "[Scheppers] was even more impressive than [Andrew] Cashner, sitting at 95-98 [mph] with a vicious curveball with hard, late two-plane break. He appeared to be amped up for the short outing; I doubt he'd sit at that velocity as a starter, but even 92-95 [mph] with that breaking ball would get hitters out multiple times per game. His arm works well, and his potential to be a front-line starter is really just a question of the state of his shoulder."

So did Kevin Goldstein: "The thing is, there's some real magic in [Scheppers' right arm]. In his AFL debut on Friday (10/16), his fastball sat at 95-98 mph over a pair of scoreless innings. He's still a risk, but seemingly a risk worth taking, and he just might be the Rangers' shut-down closer of the future."

Jason Grey? Yeah, him too: "Tanner Scheppers = Nasty McFilthy."

Pitch f/x, as you'll see below, is surprisingly ambivalent.

Tanner Scheppers was selected by the Rangers with the 44th pick in the 2009 amateur draft after convincing themselves that his shoulder had healed sufficiently to risk a supplemental first-round pick. Signed after the end of the minor league season, Scheppers is making his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). As noted in the quotes above, he's made an impression on the talent evaluators who have seen him.

In three AFL appearances, Scheppers is unscored upon in 5.0 innings. He has given up one hit, struck out six and walked one. His fastball has ranged from 95-98 mph and his curveball has been praised by seemingly everyone who has seen him pitch.

Last Thursday night, Scheppers tossed two innings in a game that was tracked by Pitch f/x. Using data procured from Brooks Baseball and FanGraphs, I've compared Scheppers' stuff to the Pitch f/x profiles of all of the major league pitchers who tossed at least 50 innings in the major leagues in 2009. Provided below are the fastballs and curveballs with the most similar velocities and movement to Scheppers' pitches. The value column is FanGraphs' estimate of what the major league pitches were worth in wins in 2009 for every 100 times they were thrown. Negative win values are below-average pitches and positive win values are above-average pitches. Win values greater than +1 are considered to be well above-average pitches.

FOUR-SEAM FASTBALL

If Scheppers averaged 96.3 MPH with his fastball for a full season, then he would be among baseball's hardest throwers. Jonathan Broxton ranked No. 1 in fastball velocity in 2009 at 97.5 mph and the movement of his four-seamer is remarkably similar to Scheppers'. The 1.45 wins/100 pitches that Broxton registered in 2009 was among the best fastball values in the major leagues. The next most similar fastballs have lower velocities than Scheppers' and generally negative values. Having a plus secondary pitch appears to be an important factor in dictating whether a pitcher's fastball rates as above or below average, so developing a go-to second pitch should be a priority for Scheppers. As noted in the next section, the right-hander appears to be well on his way toward acheiving that developmental milestone.



CURVEBALL

The Pitch f/x data for Scheppers' curveball is remarkable. Major league pitchers who throw curveballs with as much break as Scheppers don't throw them nearly as hard. The most comparable curveball is Gavin Floyd's, which was one of the most valuable benders in baseball in 2009 at 2.69 wins/100. Justin Verlander and Yovani Gallardo had curveballs with the next most similar break and velocity. Both pitches rated as above average. Assuming that Scheppers can command his curveball, the pitch should be an above-average-to-plus pitch for him in the major leagues.



THE MYSTERY PITCH

Pitch f/x labeled two of the pitches that Scheppers threw as two-seam fastballs. The pitches were thrown at 89.4 and 89.8 mph. Scouting reports indicate that Scheppers throws a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up. Scheppers' mystery pitch doesn't break like a slider, so it appears to either be his change-up or an experimental two-seamer. If the pitch is his c hange-up, then it would be among the hardest thrown changes in the major leagues. While the pitch has good horizontal movement, it does not have the horizontal drop that is associated with most quality change-ups.

A careful review of the 2009 pitcher database revealed no change-ups with velocity and movement that were similar to Scheppers' mystery pitch, but there were several 2-seamers with similar Pitch f/x profiles. Glen Perkins' fastball is most similar to Scheppers' third pitch, except that its horizontal break is in the opposite direction due to his being left-handed. The three pitches that were most similar to Scheppers' mystery pitch rated as below average in 2009, though their use as primary pitches likely made them less valuable than they would be if used alongside a plus curveball and high-velocity fastball.



LOOKING AHEAD

Pitching out of the bullpen, Scheppers is competing effectively against some of the best AA and AAA players in baseball. Assuming he doesn't have any setbacks between now and the end of spring training, it appears likely that he will begin 2010 pitching at Double-A Frisco. The big question is whether he will be pitching in the starting rotation or the bullpen.

If the Rangers choose to limit Scheppers' workload to 100-120 innings, then the team will need to decide whether it makes more sense to pitch fewer innings per start, start fewer games, or begin the season pitching out of the bullpen and then step into the starting rotation after the first month of the season. Whatever the case may be, Trip had better have his radar gun locked and loaded when the RoughRiders hit Frisco next season.

[scott]

RHP Michael Main - AA

Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; tight curveball; potentially above-average change-up

Coming into the season, Main's strikeout rate (10.3 K/9), hit rate (7.3 H/9) and ERA (2.91) were among the best in the Rangers' system. Only his 3.4 BB/9 appeared to need improvement. Pitching sick in the High-A California League did no favors to Main's career numbers. Main was excellent when he returned to pitch in two Arizona League and two California League games (7.0 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 0 ER).

"Main already has two plus pitches, with a low-90s fastball that touches 95 mph, and an easy plus curveball that is often unhittable. He's one of the most athletic pitchers in the game." (Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)

"He's a real athletic kid, and played center field in high school," said farm director Scott Servais. "His fastball's got life, late life in the zone. There are times this spring it's been up to 95 [mph]," Servais said. "(The over-the-head) helps him get going in his delivery, as a timing mechanism." Main appeared very comfortable with it, working quick innings, burying his fastball down in the zone. It'll be key, especially as he begins to work in a change-up. "It's been OK. It's going to be a work in progress for him all year," Servais said." (Kary Booher, Baseball America)

[scott]

RHP Danny Gutierrez - AA

Stuff: Low-to-mid-90s fastball; plus curveball; developing change-up

Armed with a plus curveball and a fastball that touched 97 mph in the Arizona Fall League, Gutierrez could become an elite reliever. If he can develop what appears to be a promising change-up, then his major league future might be as a No. 2 or No. 3 starting pitcher.

Off-the-field issues and a history of arm injuries keep Gutierrez from being ranked as a Tier 1 prospect.

"Acquired from Kansas City late in the year, Gutierrez has the stuff to be a sure-fire top pitching prospect, but also a disturbing history of injuries and off-field issues. So why would a team be interested in him? Well, because he can get it up to 94 mph, he can sink it, he can cut it, and he'll flash you a quality breaking ball pretty regularly." (Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)

[scott]

RHP Wilmer Font - AA

Stuff: Mid-90's fastball, developing curveball and change-up

After barely taking the mound in 2008, Font's most important 2009 statistic was this -- 108 innings pitched.

Font has the raw stuff to become an elite pitching prospect. Pitching as an 18-/19-year old with fewer than 50 innings of professional experience, Font held the relatively experienced hitters in the South Atlantic League to a .231 batting average. Jason Cole and others reported that the fire-balling right-hander was making progress with his secondary pitches. Improved command of his three pitches will likely allow Font to improve his walk and ground ball rates and take his place among the more intriguing pitching prospects in baseball.

ESPN.com's Keith Law, in response to a chat room question regarding Font's upside and potential to make a Feliz-esque impact: "Yes -- the stuff is almost as good as Feliz's, perhaps equal to it, and the delivery's a little better suited to starting. But missing a whole year with arm and weight issues really hurts your prospect status until you show they're behind you."

[Grant]

Top 20 Texas Rangers Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!

Star-divide

1) Neftali Feliz, RHP, Grade A: He's really, really, really good. Only questions going forward are what role he plays, and the standard concerns about injuries since he's a young pitcher.

2) Justin Smoak, 1B, Grade A-: I'm not too worried about what happened in Triple-A, given everything else he's done. Still expect him to become an All-Star first baseman.

3) Martin Perez, LHP, Grade A-: Could be a left-handed version of Feliz if all goes well. Expectations are lofty, but so is the talent.

4) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A-. I'd make him an A-, but I still worry that the shoulder problems will recur. His ceiling is terrific and he could be number one next year if he stays healthy.

5) Wilmer Font, RHP, Grade B: Another very high ceiling arm, could be B+ or even A- with another year of development.

6) Michael Main, RHP, Grade B: The numbers don't support this, but he gets an injury mulligan due to the weird virus thing and I believe in his stuff.

7) Mitch Moreland, 1B-OF, Grade B-: I don't know how they fit him into the lineup, but I think the bat is legitimate. I like him better than most other analysts.

8) Kasey Kiker, LHP, Grade B-: A few command refinements and he could really take off. I think he's a bit underrated by some people, and yes I have seen him in person. I know reports of his velocity being down have folks spooked, but it's still in there. Read this scouting report.

9) Robbie Ross, LHP, Grade B-: Potent ground ball/strikeout combination. Another breakout candidate.

10) Danny Gutierrez, RHP, Grade C+: I really like this guy as a pitcher, but worry that he won't stay healthy. Off-field makeup problems seem pretty bad, too.

11) Engel Beltre, OF, Grade C+: Terrific tools but at some point he has to start living up to all the hype. I respect his youth and potential but remain skeptical that he'll live up to it, and as a result I won't put him in the top ten.

12) Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, Grade C+: I like this guy a lot, and he's ready to help now. Another underrated talent.

13) Max Ramirez, C, Grade C+: Grade gets knocked back some due to defense and durability concerns but I still think he'll hit enough to help someone.

14) Miguel Velazquez, OF, Grade C+: There are makeup concerns here but he's got the tools and he performed well in the Northwest League. Need higher level data and another year of makeup stability.

15) Omar Poveda, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like an inning-eater type. Worried about low strikeout rate.

16) Blake Beavan, RHP, Grade C+ Another low strikeout guy, throws strikes, still very young.

17) Carlos Pimentel, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy who seems underrated to me, could take another step forward in '10.

18) Robbie Erlin, LHP, Grade C+: Intriguing high school arm from '09 draft, but need to see more from higher levels.

19) Tommy Mendonca, 3B, Grade C+: Enormous power. . .but can he control the strike zone against better pitching?

20) Vince DiFazio, C, Grade C+: Very good pro debut from 2009 draft sleeper.

OTHERS (Grade C): Richard Alvarez, RHP; Mike Bianucchi, OF; Richard Bleier, LHP; Wilfredo Boscan, RHP; Andrew Doyle, RHP; Edwin Escobar, LHP; Craig Gentry, OF; Kennil Gomez, RHP; Michael Kirkman, LHP; Marcus Lemon, INF; Zack Phillips, LHP; Jurickson Profar, SS; Neil Ramirez, RHP; Luis Sardinas, SS; Ben Snyder, LHP; Pedro Strop, RHP; Tomas Telis, C; Matt Thompson, RHP, Braden Tullis, RHP; Joe Wieland, RHP.

Several of the Grade Cs have the potential to be much higher a year from now. 2009 international signees Profar and Sardinas get great reviews for their tools, but until we get some pro data for them I'm hesitant to put them on lists like this. International signees are getting more and more attention over the last couple of seasons. I applaud this trend in the press, but ranking a 16 year old accurately is very difficult, absent any objective data. If you want to give guys like Profar and Sardinas a Grade C+ and put them somewhere in the 15-20 range you can do that, but I've seen too many of these kind of players fizzle out to get any more aggressive than that. At least give me some rookie ball numbers.

Pitching is the cornerstone of this farm system. Feliz, Perez, and Scheppers all have number one starter ability and are ranked accordingly. Beyond them are a bunch of other live arms...I like Kiker a lot, Main seems a good bet for a rebound, Font is a potential B+/A- guy a year from now, and there are plenty of arms beyond them, both projectable/arm strength types and inning-eater guys.

Things are thinner on the hitting side. I still expect Justin Smoak to be an impact guy despite his problems at Oklahoma City. Mitch Moreland's bat is legitimate even if scouts still downplay his tools. Max Ramirez is more problematic...he just didn't look right this year, but he hit for power in winter ball and if the wrist is OK I think he'll rebound. Engel Beltre....yes, I know scouts love him and he's young and he's toolsy but his plate discipline remains so bad, I have doubts. He's not a top ten for me at this point given his performance.

Overall, this remains an elite farm system, with an outstanding balance of current production and long-term upside. Some of the C+/C guys could be B/B+ or even A- a year from now. Rangers fans have plenty to look forward to.