Scouting Reports

[Grant]

Please post only scouting reports from reputable sources. We are not looking for the "I was at the game once and that dude was awesome" variety.

Also, please indicate the players position and what level he is (A, AA, AAA).

[thekidisback206]

Gonna make a seperate post for each position.

Catcher

1. Adam Moore, C
05/08/84 (25)
Seattle (MLB)

Drafted in the 6th round (#171 overall) of the 2006 amateur draft. 6′3/220
Bats right

Big league ready and will compete for a 25-man roster job come Spring Training

With Kenji Johjima, Jeff Clement and Rob Johnson getting the spotlight, Moore was allowed a very structured and methodical rise through the system under the radar, helping him develop all facets of his game.

Offensively, he employs a sound approach at the plate and a pretty, compact stroke that sprays line drives all over the place. He walks enough and has some home run pop, though most of his slugging will come from pounding balls into Safeco’s spacious gaps, which is obviously a plus given the park’s dimensions. In a neutral park he could feasibly top out at over 20 homers down the road.

Defensively he’s been a work in progress. Pitch blocking has been perhaps his greatest weakness, though he’s improved enough that it shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance going forward. He has a good arm and quick release, and has improved his footwork and accuracy to second base. After being told he focused too much on offense, Moore made a concentrated effort to get his defense up to snuff as well as his staff management and game calling. Moore is a solid yet unspectacular backstop that reminds of Michael Barrett, which is really all you can ask for.


2. Steve Baron, C
12/07/90 (19)
Pulaski (Arizona League Rookie Ball)

Drafted in the first round (#33 overall) of the 2009 amateur draft.
6′0/195
Bats right.

Arguably the best defensive prep receiver a 2009 draft that featured some great high school talent behind the plate.
He is extremely advanced for someone of his age and experience level, showing off a plus arm, quick release, good footwork and overall instincts, making him very fun to watch behind the plate. Offensively he’s more of a work in progress, as evidence by the .179/.241/.292 slash line he produced in his introduction to pro ball. That said, Pulaski is a tough place to land for high school players and his swing has made progress over the last year or so according to most reports. He isn’t expected to hit for much average, but has the physical tools and raw power to hit 15+ homers some day, which would pair nicely with plus defense. Conditioning will be important for Baron, as he’s already fairly big and has had problems staying in shape in the past. His defense alone should get him to the big leagues one day, but his offense may determine his outlook as a starter. He isn’t expected to be a quick riser. Video: High school highlights, offense and defense, 2009

3. Trevor Coleman, C
01/19/88 (21)
Clinton (A Ball)

Drafted in the 9th round (#263 overall) of the 2009 amateur draft.
6′1/205
Bats both.

Coleman comes to the Mariners from Missouri, where he had the opportunity to catch first round pitchers Aaron Crow and Kyle Gibson. What’s great about that is it gave him an opportunity to catch advanced arms with good secondary stuff, helping him improve his game calling and pitch blocking more than the average college catcher. Though he’s a solid receiver, he’s not defensively advanced enough to make the big leagues alone; he’s going to have to hit. Coleman’s bat never progressed as expected while at Missouri and he’s been more or less a singles hitter. He didn’t show much in his short debut at Everett either, hitting .184/.306/.289 in 32 games. But he is a switch hitter, which is rare out of a catcher, and knows how to the work the counts (more walks than strikeouts in college, 13% walk rate in Everett), so it may be worth keeping an eye on him in 2010.

Watch list - Ji-man Choi: 2009 IFA from Korea. Power LH bat. Engle called him “best left-handed abt in Korean High School play this year.” Originally had him above Coleman, but we’ll wait for some more detailed scouting reports first. Travis Howell: 25 year olds who haven’t escaped A-ball aren’t usually mentioned on posts like this, but Howell’s defensive reputation intrigues me. If he can stay healthy he could become someone worth watching. Also keep an eye on Brandon Bantz and Tommy Johnson. Hassiel Jimenez works the counts and is regarded as a hard worker with at least average offensive tools across the board.

as a prospect. I’ll admit that he wasn’t on my radar at all, but I’ll trust their judgment. Will dig up some info and update this.

It’s looking pretty thin for the Mariners behind the plate. Outside of Moore and the two teenagers (Baron and Choi) the depth consists of a bunch of fringy guys that are either very old for their respective levels or are just not particularly exciting. Luckily, Moore and Rob Johnson should be able to anchor the position at the big league level for the foreseeable future. That said, it’s hard to predict young catchers, as illustrated by Seattle’s inability to develop one since acquiring Dan Wilson.

[thekidisback206]

First Baseman[/b

1. Rich Poythress, 1B/DH
08/11/87 (22)
West Tenn-Tacoma

Drafted in the 2nd round (#51 overall) in the 2009 draft.
Listed at 6′4/235.
Bats right.

Poythress may have been the second best college hitter after Dustin Ackley. While that is certainly debatable, it is obvious that the Mariners landed an offensively polished player in Poythress. After his sheer size and strength, the thing that jumps out most about Poythress may be his knowledge of the strikezone and willingness to take a walk. He had more walks than strikeouts in his final two seasons with Georgia, and managed 20 walks in just 32 games between Arizona and West Tenn in his 2009 pro debut. The two most hit on negatives at draft time would probably be his bat speed and his defense. A common draft line was that “his power is more strength than bat speed oriented,” leaving his pro contact rates to be determined. But he’s going to hit the ball a long way and he’s going to get on base. Poythress isn’t expected to take long to develop, and could be ready for big league action some point during the 2011 season, possibly ready for regular duty by 2012.


2. Mike Carp, 1B
06/30/86 (23)
Tacoma-Seattle

One of several players acquired in trade from the New York Mets in the three way J.J. Putz-Franklin Gutierrez trade on 12/10/08. Listed at 6′2/215. Bats left. Has a pretty swing and great approach at the plate, but the combination of a low power ceiling and below average contact rates put future in question. “Lyle Overbay minus the defensive reputation” is the most common comp, making him a league average-ish first baseman. However, when Carp does get a hold of one he has a habit of hitting them 450 feet, so while his swing is geared towards consistency and line drives, I wonder if he might develop some more consistent power as he gets comfortable in the big leagues. I would be more confident in predicting this if he made more consistent contact (”great hitters develop power”– Carp has a great approach, but is not presently a great hitter), but there still is a chance. Despite having a lower upside than most of these other first basemen, he’s #2 on this list because of his proximity to the big leagues (he’s ready) and probability of reaching expectations.

3. Dennis Raben, RF/1B
07/31/87 (22)
High Desert

Drafted in the 2nd round (#66 overall) of the 2008 amateur draft.
6′3/220
Bats left

Knee injury (microfracture surgery) wiped out his entire 2009 and many are now questioning his future. His career as an outfielder is almost certainly over, which hurts his stock as he looked like he could handle RF for a few years. Before the injury he paired light tower power with a great approach at the plate. Swing was a little long, however, making him susceptible to the strikeout. Probably a three true outcome type with Jack Cust-type upside if the knee doesn’t hinder him going forward. Raben is a monster and I’m definitely rooting for him. He hopes to be ready for 2010 Spring Training, but I think he could get off to a late start next season.

4. Jharmidy De Jesus, 1B/3B
08/30/89 (20)
Clinton

Signed as an amateur free agent on 8/14/07 for $1M
6′3/190
Bats right
One of my favorite prospects coming into the 2009 season, De Jesus didn’t progress as expected. In fact, key members of the Mariners player development staff have said that he showed no real improvement whatsoever after a shoulder injury held him out of full-season baseball. De Jesus hit just .249/.340/.385 in 194 plate appearances for rookie-level Pulaski after hitting .309/.376/.530 over 247 plate appearances between rookie-level Arizona and low-A Everett the year before. Still, the physical tools are there for him to become a very good player and while he’s a free swinger, he isn’t completely lost at the plate. De Jesus has good raw power and, while he can get a little pull happy like many young hitters, has shown off power to all fields. Hopefully he can rebound in full season baseball in 2010.

5. Joe Dunigan, 1B/OF
03/29/86 (23)
West Tenn

Drafted in the 5th round (#165 overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.
6′1/215
Bats left

Dunigan burst onto the prospect scene this past season by posting big numbers in High Desert. He hit .294/.355/.570 with 30 homers and 104 RBI in 118 games. His home/away splits were telling though, as 21 of his homers came in the High Desert launching pad and he hit just .244/.313/.431 on the road. Dunigan has very good raw power and can whip the bat around with the best of them, but in the past he’s counteracted much of that by employing a very long swing path, which, along with struggles laying off good breaking balls and lefties, shows up in the big strikeout totals. Some reports also mention a swing hitch that keeps him from maximizing his natural raw power. The swing has shortened a bit though, and he had a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League. At 23 he’s a little old for the level for a legitimate prospect, but he’s someone worth keeping an eye on. I don’t think he’s a regular, but he might be a good platoon bat some day.

[thekidisback206]

INF
NOTE: Dustin Ackley has moved to 2B since this list was published. I'd say he'd be above Triunfel at this point, both have similar upside but Ackley is much more polished at this point.



1. Carlos Triunfel, INF
02/27/90 (19)
West Tenn-Tacoma

Signed as an amateur free agent for $1.3M on 9/23/06.
5′11/175
Bats right

Triunfel lost most of 2009 after breaking his leg early, but was able to get into a few games late and participated in the Arizona Fall League. He gained a lot of bad weight while injured (getting up to around 190-200), but displayed a great work ethic upon returning. His overall boost of maturity coming back from the injury was great to see, as makeup issues raised a red flag coming into the year. Triunfel’s offensive game may profile similarly to that of Miguel Tejada (free swinger, great contact ability, lines drives all over the place, some speed), but he’s starting to look more like Adrian Beltre physically, hinting at the possibility of more raw power. The power hasn’t arrived on the stat sheet yet, but he’s got great bat control and has shown flashes down the stretch in 2008– it’ll come. He is expected to be a middle of the order bat in the big leagues. Triunfel will take his hacks, but has shown just enough plate discipline (especially late in counts) that he shouldn’t kill you, and he can square the ball up out of the zone anyway (this is important). Defensively his best position is said to be third base, followed by shortstop and second base. Right field is another possibility for him down the road as he has one of the best throwing arms in affiliated baseball. It remains to be seen how Triunfel fits into GM Zduriencik’s plans with Chone Figgins blocking an infield spot for four seasons, Ackley moving to second base and Jack Wilson signing up for two years at shortstop. Triunfel should see the big leagues in 2010, though it may be in another team’s uniform as he’s a prime candidate to be traded for a bat.


2. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B
05/10/86 (23)
Tacoma-Seattle

Drafted in the 3rd round (#93 overall) in the 2004 amateur draft.
6′2/225.
Bats right

I believe Tui’s been slightly underrated due to poor performances under Bill Bavasi’s aggressive promotions, but while that may not have been best for his development, it certainly showed us that he can keep his head up through some serious adversity. Like other top prospects Triunfel and Dennis Raben, Tui lost much of his ‘09 season to injury. A bum elbow that required surgery knocked him out for about half the year, but there was a silver lining. During rehab he whipped himself into outstanding shape, enough that he managed to play 21 games at 2B down the stretch and in Seattle during his callup. The move probably doesn’t help him much long term though. I doubt he keeps the weight off, and while he showed enough range to play 2B he doesn’t appear to have quick enough feet to make the DP turn consistently. He’s also said to really dislike the position, for what that’s worth. 3B is his position, and right now he’s still trying to prove that he can handle it on either side of the ball. Defensively he’s shown some serious improvement, but more is needed. Some question his reaction time at the hot corner. Offensively, he has a good approach at the plate, has displayed good pitch recognition skills and will use the whole field on occasion. His physical tools suggest there is some good natural power in there, and he has displayed legit pull power at times. He’s cleaned up his timing mechanism a bit, which is helpful, but his load is still a little messy, which will not help contact rates. Overall, I think Tui has a decent chance at being an average third baseman, though I believe he has some upside offensively. At worst, Tui can be a 3B/1B/OF/2B-in-a-pinch bench player with some pop, which has plenty of value. Video: First MLB home run

3. Gabriel Noriega, SS
09/13/90 (19)
Everett

Signed as an amateur free agent for $800k on 7/2/07
6′2/170
Bats both

Noriega is most known for his good instincts and abilities on defense. There’s a chance that he can be good enough that he won’t have to be much of an offensive player, but he’s got a shot to be more than a one dimensional defender. The switch hitting teenager surprised with an .816 OPS in his sophomore season, showing improvement in his walk rates and power. The swing still needs work from both sides, especially the right side, but you have to like what Noriega is doing at a young age. If he can shorten up his swings and continue to hone in his pitch recognition,he’ll limit the strikeouts and become a legit big league starting prospect. His lanky frame suggests there is at least average power there, too.

4. Nick Franklin, SS
03/02/91 (18)
Pulaski

Drafted in the first round (#27 overall) in the 2009 amateur draft.
6′1/170
Bats both

Franklin is a very balanced player with no outstanding tools or skills and no glaring weaknesses either. While that isn’t sexy, that is certainly valuable. He should hit enough that his ability to start should come down to his defense. Scouting reports vary (as they often do with defense) but he has good actions and footwork and is at least an average defender going forward. Franklin is another “great feel for the game” guy who is going to be a grinder and a hard worker, helping to maximize his overall average tools. A switch hitter, his swing and approach are much more refined than you might expect out of a high schooler. Video: Fielding and BP, 2008

5. Mario Martinez, 3B
11/13/89 (20)
Clinton-High Desert

Signed as an amateur free agent for $600k on 7/3/06.
6′3/170
Bats right

Martinez possesses average or better physical tools across the board but none that stand out above the others. He has a decent approach at the plate and recognizes the breaking ball well enough, though is often fooled by speed. Martinez is caught out in front often, which is acceptable at this point as long as he’s not swinging wildly at pitches way out of the zone. It doesn’t take long to see his passion and leadership on the field. He’s said to be very receptive to instruction. All of these intangibles will help him max out his overall average tools. Defensively he’s shown big improvement but is still a bit of a work in progress. He has the agility and arm to stick there with some more work. If it doesn’t work out, I think he can make it as an outfielder. He had a rough landing in Clinton last season and had to be bumped back down to Everett.

6. Alex Liddi, 3B/1B
08/14/88 (21)
West Tenn

Signed as an amateur free agent on 9/5/05. Listed at 6′4/176 (though that was the weight he was listed at when he signed as a 17 year old. He’s 210 at the very least). Bats right. A lot of people are jumping on the Alex Liddi bandwagon after his breakout 2009 campaign. The Italian hit .345/.411/.594 with 23 homers and 104 RBI in 129 games with High Desert. An impressive season indeed, and one that earned him the California League MVP. But while some of the improvement was real, I remain skeptical. As you know, High Desert is widely known as one of the (if not the) greatest hitter’s parks in all of affiliated baseball. To no surprise, Liddi’s home/road splits were dramatic. His ISO at home was .309, but .193 on the road. His walks were way up at home, meaning pitchers were pitching around him and not that he has seen big improvement with regards to his batting eye. His LD/GB/FB numbers also ranged drastically, as he was apparently trying to pop the ball up into the jet stream while at home. Most players are going to try and take advantage of their environment so that is no knock on him, but it paints a different picture than his slash line. I don’t like his swing mechanics, bat speed or defensive prospects either. I think West Tenn will be a major test for him as he inevitably falls back down to earth. If he continues to put up good numbers or show improvement I’ll eat my words, but right now I’m not a Liddi believer.

7. Kyle Seager, 2B/3B
11/3/87 (22)
High Desert-West Tenn

Drafted in the 3rd round (#82 overall) of the 2009 amateur draft.
5′10/175
Bats left

Seager is another low risk/low-medium upside player. He isn’t likely to be a star, but there is a good chance that he becomes a solid second baseman or utility infielder at the big league level. He split time between 3B and 2B in college, but should be sticking to 2B as a pro as that is where his bat profiles. He had a solid debut, hitting .275/.360/.346 in 41 games for Clinton. Seager will put together smart at bats, working the counts and drawing walks while limiting the strikeouts. He didn’t show much power with Clinton, but he might come up with some decent gap power as he progresses. Nice level swing.

8. Juan Diaz, SS
12/12/88 (21)
West Tenn


Signed as an amateur free agent on 4/20/06
6′4/170
Bats both

Diaz has the reputation as a defensive whiz, though in actuality he may not be good enough to justify his lack of offense. The switch hitter had a breakout offensive season in High Desert, posting a .311/.356/.446 line in 84 ballgames. Still, that line was helped by a BABIP about 100 points above his career average and while the numbers look good, it wasn’t much more than average for the hitter friendly league. Diaz has improved his plate coverage but his groundball swing does not rate well long term. Diaz is likely a utility infielder.

Who needs nice round numbers? No need to highlight more than eight infielders in this system.

Watch List - Matt Mangini: I’ve long given up on Mangini, but I’ll give him one final courtesy mention. Terrible uppercut swing and resistance to coaching have doomed him thus far, but someone may have changed as his numbers picked up a bit down the stretch. Brandon Haveman: He’s tiny but he hits and hits and hits. Being moved from the OF to 2B this offseason, hopefully it works out. Vinnie Catricala: Some intriguing tools and power potential. Good debut in Pulaski. Will likely struggle against better breaking balls. Pedro Okuda: Half Brazilian, half Japanese, played Japanese high school ball. Passed up in Japan’s draft. Some say because of racism, some because of skill. Seems like an interesting blend of tools and polish, but he’s being described as a “middling prospect.”

[thekidisback206]

Outfielders

1. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B
02/26/88 (21)
West Tenn

Drafted in the first round (#2 overall) of the 2009 amateur draft.
6′1/185
Bats left

Next time around Ackley may be topping the infielders section, but until we find out how the second base experiment is going I’ll leave him here. As an outfielder, he has good range and takes decent routes for his experience level, though his throwing arm leaves much to be desired. Offensively he is expected to hit for high average and draw plenty of walks, giving him a shot at .300/.400 or better. The power isn’t there yet– the 22 homers he hit for UNC were more aluminum than anything– but he should have double digit home run pop at some point, with a possible ceiling of about 20 homers. With plus-plus speed to go with those on-base skills, Ackley is a strong candidate to succeed Ichiro and/or Chone Figgins at the leadoff spot, but could fit in hitting second or even third at some point. Ackley should be a quick study offensively, though his possible shift to second base could slow his ascent to the big leagues slightly. The New Kid should get a September callup in 2010. Video: BP with scouting report voiceover, fall 2009

2. Mike Saunders, OF
11/19/86 (23)
Seattle

Drafted in the 11th round (#333 overall) of the 2004 amateur draft.
6′4/210
Bats left

Saunders is long, lanky and an exceptional athlete. He has a decent approach at the plate and while his swing is more line-drive oriented he’s plenty strong enough to hit for power. 20+ home runs may not be out of the question once he gets his feet under him. It was apparent that his swing had some major holes that needed to be addressed, and the organization has been working on revamping his swing since he arrived with the big club last summer. They rarely played him, using the callup as a coaching opportunity rather than an audition, and had him stop in Arizona for more specified instruction before heading off to winter ball. You’ve got to love Saunders’ great defensive and small ball abilities, allowing him to contribute even if he’s having trouble harnessing his great physical tools on the offensive end. Saunders is a premium prospect as a center fielder, but he won’t get that chance in Seattle. As a corner outfielder he is less valuable, though he still has above-average upside. With good outfield depth at the big league level, Saunders could be used as trade-bait in the near future.

3. Julio Morban, CF
02/13/92 (17)
Pulaski

Signed as an amateur free agent for $1.1M on 7/2/08
6′1/190
Bats left

One of the more highly regarded 2008 IFAs, Morban was given the most aggressive assignment of his class when he was sent to Pulaski to start the year. Despite being bumped back down to Arizona, the move shows how the organization views his polish (relative to age) and makeup. Morban is said to be very coachable, possessing a great feel for the game and advanced approach at the plate. He projects as a top 3rd of the order hitter, most likely leadoff or #2. Defensively, the hope is that he’ll stick in center field but many believe he’ll end up in left long term.
4. Guillermo Pimentel, LF
10/05/92 (17)
Arizona

Signed as an amateur free agent for approximately $2M on July 2, 2009.
6′2/185
Bats left

This may seem like an aggressive ranking for a 17 year old who has yet to break into affiliated baseball, but he appears quite advanced for his age and was one of the three or four top IFAs in 2009 (before the Cubans burst onto the scene, anyway). Early reports highlight his good approach at the plate, top notch raw power, solid swing mechanics and advanced pitch recognition skills (for his age and experience level). He should be athletic enough to play a solid corner outfield as he matures, though it’s too early to tell just how much he’ll fill out. He doesn’t throw well, likely limiting him to left field. I’m really looking forward to watching this guy rack up some numbers.

5. James Jones, RF
09/24/88 (21)
Clinton-High Desert

Drafted in the 4th round (#113 overall) of the 2009 amateur draft.
6′4/193
Bats left

Zduriencik and McNamara used the 2009 draft to create a safety blanket of sorts, focusing on probability rather than upside. Jones was one of the few upside/project picks, though he does have a decent foundation. Known more as a pitching prospect coming into the draft (low-mid 90s from the mound), the big lefty reminds of Dontrelle Willis in terms of physicality and even mannerisms. Jones has a decent approach at the plate, good physical tools and early reports on the intangibles are positive (leadership, coachability, etc.). His swing needs some work, both in terms of stiffening up his front side and generating more power, as well as cutting down on some of the strikeouts, but he’s got a shot to hit for enough power to play a corner. Jones had a great debut for Everett, hitting .311/.392/.463 in 45 games, fueled by a fantastic close to the season.

6. Greg Halman, OF
08/26/87 (22)
West Tenn-Tacoma

Signed as a free agent on 6/26/04 out of the Dutch Major Leagues. Listed at 6′4/190. Bats right. Halman we all know. He has the physical tools of a superstar but swings and misses like Pedro Cerrano. After a monster 2008, Halman’s strikeout percentage ballooned to 40% and in no month did he post an OBP above .300. He still has excellent raw power of course, as he hit 44 extra base hits to 52 singles. Poor pitch recognition is what is killing him, as pitchers have started throwing him a steady diet of breaking pitches that he’s not recognizing, though it’s not as if he’s particularly disciplined either and his swing can get a bit long at times. Halman is still young (even for the level) and it’s far to early to give up on him no matter how frustrating he is. The deck is certainly stacked against players with his BB/K ratios, but while it’s easy to write him off as a Charlton Jimerson/Reggie Abercrombie fourth outfielder, there is that tiny, lottery chance he can find his way to the Alfonso Soriano, Juan Gonzalez or Bo Jackson path, which is what drives you crazy. Halman has the best upside of anyone on this entire report, but is also be among the most likely to bust. He is a wild card.

7. Ezequiel Carrera, OF
06/11/87 (22)
Tacoma

One of several players acquired in trade from the New York Mets in the three way Putz-Gutierrez trade on 12/10/08. Listed at 5′10/179. Bats left. Carrera had a great season in West Tenn between minor injuries, posting a .337/.441/.416 batting line in 405 plate appearances to go along with 27 stolen bases. The on-base totals are certainly impressive, though the complete lack of power is discouraging (18 extra base hits to 93 singles). I tend to think his speed and defensive abilities are overrated by many Mariner fans. He’s known as an above average runner, but he’s not a burner– think Randy Winn on the basepaths and in the outfield. He has no plus-plus tools but maximizes his ability with a great feel for the game on both sides of the ball. He doesn’t have the bat speed to develop any power, so I worry about his ability to punish meatballs down the middle. If pitchers do not fear him they won’t allow him to walk, which is presently one of his greater assets. His .337 average was fueled by a .411 BABIP, nearly 100 points above his career average, so it’s not likely that so many balls fall in. He’s likely a fourth outfielder, but if he can prove he can hit the ball hard in AAA (no slap hitting), keep the average and walks up, cut down on the strikeouts a little more and play plus defense in center field, he might be able to start. Of any prospect in these rankings, reports on Carrera may have been the most conflicting– it’s definitely been difficult to get a read on him. I look forward to seeing a lot of him with the Rainiers in 2010.

8. Johermyn Chavez, RF
01/26/89 (20)
High Desert

One of two players acquired in trade from the Toronto Blue Jays for Brandon Morrow on 12/23/09. Listed at 6′3/220. Bats right. Chavez got a lot of attention as an IFA a couple years ago for his great physical tools, and he already appears fully developed physically at this point. He reminds of a monster version of Jose Guillen (+ 4″, 30+ lbs). He possesses very good raw power and a strong throwing arm. The 49 extra base hits he registered last season in a pitcher friendly environment were certainly impressive, but the strikeouts stand out. He has a way to come with pitch recognition and his swing will need to be cleaned up a bit, but his willingness to take a few pitches will help him in the future. He’s a high risk/high reward player, making him someone you should be checking in on but not counting on. For me, he doesn’t get the tools-bump that Halman got last year because he doesn’t run or field nearlyas well, leaving him with fewer options. He’s going to have to be an above average hitter to find a place in the big leagues. His High Desert numbers could be comical. Note: His first name sometimes spelled with a Y and sometimes with a J. Video: Double, fall 2009

9. Denny Almonte, OF
09/24/88 (21)
Clinton-High Desert

Drafted in the 2nd round (76th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft. Listed at 6′2/187. Bats both. Almonte is on here for his very good physical tools, though he has not managed to use them to create positive results in 2 1/2 years as a professional. His contact rates are among the very worst in the system, and while he draws a few walks he is known to chase breaking balls out of the zone regularly. He’s a switch hitter, but both of his swings need refinement. From the left side he is smoother and makes more consistent contact, but from the right side he has shown a little more power. Almonte figures to start 2010 back in the Midwest League for the third year in a row, but hopefully he can get off to a good enough start that he can make the jump to High Desert where the hitter friendly conditions may restore some confidence and get him on track. The raw power and overall physical package is enough to keep an eye on him despite the poor showing, though the gap between him and the rest of the list is wide.

10. Ryan Royster, CF
10/13/85 (24)
Clinton-High Desert

Drafted in the 13th round (#402 overall) in the 2008 amateur draft. Listed at 6′4/180. Bats left. Royster crash landed in his 2008 debut, but bounced back in a big way this past season. He hit .326/.413/.579 between Everett and Clinton before his year ended prematurely after suffering a shoulder injury on defense, requiring surgery. He has good overall physical tools with speed being his greatest asset. He has a good approach at the plate, good swing mechanics and has shown a little pop. He’ll be 24 next year, so he’s definitely old for the level, but if Royster can continue to stay on track he could find himself on a few more people’s radar. One of my favorite sleeper prospects.


Watch list: Efrain Nunez: Teenage switch hitter has good power potential and a decent foundation at the plate. Will be a long term prospect. In over his head in USA debut. George Drulliard: Teenage left fielder has caught the attention of some in the Dominican Summer League. He’ll likely be making the jump to the States next season. Carlos Peguero: Another high strikeout, low walks, high power hitters, but without the athleticism of some of the guys higher on the list. Took a step back with his contact rates last season. 172 Ks in 126 games for High Desert. 2010 will be big, as he’ll likely be forced to leave his High Desert home of three seasons for a tougher environment. Kuo Hui Lo: He feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s still just 23. Getting old for his level, but improved a bit in 2009 and a strong showing in AA this season keeps him on the radar. Matt Cerione: If he can stick in CF he could be interesting, but I don’t see it. Seems like he was always on base whenever I saw him with Everett. He is not the author of MetsBlog. Ha.

[thekidisback206]

Pitchers


1. Dan Cortes, SP
03/04/87 (22)
West Tenn-Tacoma

One of two players acquired in trade from Kansas City Royals for Yuniesky Betancourt on 7/10/09. Listed at 6′6/215. Throws right. After struggling much of the year, Cortes came to life down the stretch, showing a mid-high 90s fastball, out-pitch curve and improved control according to reports. Still, command and the development of a third pitch are not where they need to be at this point, making him a probable reliever as he nears the big leagues. If he can pull it together he has the stuff to become a good middle of the rotation pitcher for Seattle; a #2 or pseudo-ace if everything breaks right. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now as he seems re-energized since escaping Kansas City.

2. Michael Pineda, SP
01/18/89 (20)
High Desert-West Tenn

Signed as an amateur free agent on 12/12/05. Listed at 6′5/180. Throws right. Pineda’s numbers as a professional are simply incredible. In 265 career innings he’s managed a 2.04 ERA with 242 K to just 59 BB. He throws a 4-seam fastball that sits in the high 80s/low 90s, touching the mid 90s on occasion. He gets good tailing action and some sink on the pitch due to a low 3/4 arm slot. Has a good changeup, but his slider is slow and tends to flatten out. Despite throwing sidearm he gets decent plane due to his height and tall release position. High elbow, whippy arm action and (perhaps) corresponding elbow injury last season are very concerning, and the lone reason he’s not #1 here. Pineda has to prove that can continue to pound the zone and get away with it in the high minors and, most importantly, prove he’s durable before I buy in the way others have. I think he’s a reliever, but if he can stay healthy and stay on top of his slider he could fit into the middle of the rotation at some point. At very worst, he should be able to make it as a back of the rotation guy in the Fister mold or a fine reliever. Video: Pineda’s deliver (pre-injury)

3. Maikel Cleto, SP
05/01/89 (20)
High Desert

One of several players acquired in trade from the New York Mets in the three way J.J. Putz-Franklin Gutierrez trade on 12/10/08. Listed at 6′3/218. Throws right. Cleto, often regarded as the potential hidden gem of the prospects received from the Mets in the Putz deal, wasn’t able to get off to a roaring start with the Mariners. He was stuck in the Dominican Republic for much of the season with hundreds of other ballplayers as part of an FBI-led investigation. When he finally got back to the States and got his arm strength up he missed more time with some back issues. He was only able to make it into 9 ballgames between Arizona and Clinton on the year. Cleto is a fireballer who has also shown a promising changeup. He’s had trouble with his slider, which tends to come out a little slurvey at time. Cleto has fair control but poor command of his pitches at this point. He has a long way to go, but he can top out as a top-middle of the rotation starter or a late inning reliever. He’s the rawest of these top five, but possibly the most electric. Note: Maikel pronounced “Michael.”

4. Mauricio Robles, SP
03/05/89 (20)
West Tenn

One of two players acquired in trade from the Detroit Tigers for Jarrod Washburn on 7/31/09. Listed at 5′10/160. Throws left. Mariner fans have gotten really excited about Robles, but while he is a southpaw that throws hard and has racked up the K’s in the lower levels, a lot is going to have to go right for him to reach fans’ lofty expectations. He is short and stocky, so according to conventional wisdom he may have a hard time maintaining his velocity long term in a starting role. His curveball has flashed as a plus pitch, but lacks consistency. He doesn’t have much of a changeup at this point, so pair that with poor (though improving) control of his fastball and curve and he could have trouble getting right handed hitters out at higher levels. If he can fix/overcome all of that then he could be something, but chances are he’s a bullpen arm or back of the rotation guy. Not many pitchers with his body type make it at all, let alone as top of the rotation starters.


5. Steve Hensley, SP
12/27/86 (23)
West Tenn

HENSLEYDrafted in the 4th round (132nd overall) of the 2008 amateur draft. Listed at 6′3/195. Throws right. Hensley, a player to watch coming into the season, really opened some eyes in 2009. Assigned to class-A Clinton, Hensley started the season with 19.2 scoreless frames for the Lumberkings in which he struck out 16 and walked none, garnering an immediate promotion. Outside of 3 spot starts for AA West Tenn, Hensley spent most of the year with high-A High Desert where he put up an ERA of 4.23 (113 tRA+) over 113 innings, including 108 strikeouts to just 30 walks in one of the nation’s toughest pitching environments. He also pitched a 3 hit, 10 strikeout shutout in the playoffs for HD. He’s got a 2-seamer with some late life that sits in the low 90s and will induce a fair number of grounders. He’ll occasionally dial it up to the mid-90s, and could consistently as a reliever. His slider has developed into an out pitch, and he throws a decent enough changeup at this stage. With a pronounced Inverted W causing a slight timing problem as well as a few other ticky-tack issues, Hensley’s motion isn’t likely to please the biomechanics crowd, but as far as I know he hasn’t had any shoulder or elbow issues yet so we’ll sit back and see what happens. His stuff would play up in the ‘pen, so if starting doesn’t work out for whatever reason he should have a big league career as a reliever.

Watch list – Nick Hill (LH): Originally had him in the top 5 due to his polish and proximity to the bigs, but I just can’t get behind Hill as a starting pitching prospect. Gets grounders with good 2-seamer and changeup and has had plenty of success, but his velo reportedly fades after a couple innings and his mechanics are frightening– short stride, extreme hyperabduction, whippy arm action and throws across his body. I think he is a permanent reliever starting at some point in 2010. Jose Valdivia (RH): Teenager is all projection at this point. He has a lanky frame and a big arm. Was throwing in the low 90s as a 16 year old, has touched mid-90s. Reports are scarce since last spring as he threw very little in 2009 (hamstring and back issues). He should be featured more prominently on future lists, but they’re babying him for now. Kenn Kasparek (RH): Great 2009 numbers in Midwest League. Huge, listed between 6′8-6′10. Throws low-mid 90s. No workable changeup, breaking ball is slurvey and inconsistent. Command is an issue. Stuff may play up in relief. If he could use his size to create greater plane on his pitches he’d be in much better shape. George Mieses (RH): Turned a few heads in the Dominican Summer League. Teenager should make the jump to the States next season. Fastball is already up into the high 80s/low 90s and he knows how to place it. Terrence Engles (RH): AAA phase Rule 5 pickup from the Nationals. Fister-esque with great fastball command and lots of grounders. Has to decide between splitter/slider and change/curve. Right now he’s change/curve, I believe. Nolan Diaz (RH): Caught the attention of scouts early in the year after out dueling Oakland’s Michael Ynoa in instructs. Pounds the strikezone with great fastball command. Secondary stuff has worked in the rookie leagues, but without plus velo he’ll have to tighten up his offspeed pitches to continue success. Erasmo Ramirez (RH): Got a lot of attention among minor league watchers for otherworldly numbers in the VSL. But he’s old for the level (possibly even older than his listed age) and doesn’t have great velo or stuff. What he does have is better command than you’d ever expect to see in the VSL, which will help him max out his abilities as he makes the jump to the States. He can put it where he wants it. Tyler Blandford (RH): 1st pitcher taken by M’s in 2009 draft. Electric fastball, but has little else working for him. He’s probably popping up in the relief section by the time the next report rolls around, but I’m hoping they at least give him a shot as a starter. Luke French, Donnie Hume and Robert Rohrbaugh (LH): The soft tossing lefties don’t get much love on rankings like this, but they have a place in the bigs and especially at Safeco Field.

Note - I considered extending this ranking out to 10, but it was the toughest ranking of the series as it were. The top five could be ordered in virtually any fashion without raising too many objections. As far as I can tell, there is no clear cut #1 like Juan Ramirez would have been (though even he would not be THAT clear). Pineda could have been if he had stayed healthy. Just keep that in mind before you get all worked up other the exact placement, though I’d still like to hear your arguments for who you think should go where.





Relief Pitchers

Relief pitchers, as you know, tend to come out of nowhere and flame out just as quickly, so let’s just keep it simple. Joshua Fields is Seattle’s top pure relief prospect. He has closer upside, throws hard and has a killer curveball. I worry that the fastball might be a little straight for the big leagues, and his control is off and on, but he’ll probably be okay. He should make his big league debut in 2010. Shawn Kelley would still be considered a prospect by some outlets. Great control, command comes and goes, low 90s heat and at times a very good slider. You know him already. Anthony Varvaro and Ricky Orta round out Seattle’s top high-minors pure relief prospects and could also see Seattle in 2010. Varvaro has a good fastball that he pairs with a solid curve and changeup. He’ll occasionally toss in a slider or splitter to cross hitters up, especially lefties. Orta also throws in the low 90s (touching mid 90s) with a below average slurve.

To build a relief prospect you start with a good fastball, then add some combination of poor secondary offerings or no third pitch, poor control or command, a small frame, and/or injury history. Fields is small, has poor command and no third pitch (though he’s never really been a starter, going back to high school). Kelley, Varvaro and Orta all have past injury problems that keep them pitching in short relief, though Varvaro can also be wild and Orta doesn’t have much of a third pitch. There are no shortage of high octane arms in the minor leagues with issues that keep them from starting. We’ll make sure you know who guys are as they approach the big leagues, but there is little reason to go beyond the guys above at this point.

[Grant]

Thekidisback gave a great break down from position to position. Be great to have that for all teams. Here is the overall top 20 for the Mariners.

Top 20 Seattle Mariners Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!

Star-divide

1) Dustin Ackley, OF-2B, Grade A-: Love the bat, has the type of skills needed in a future batting champion. Can he really play second base though?

2) Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B: I don't like him as much as some people do. I see him more as a solid .270/.330/.450 type than a future star, but he should have a long career.

3) Gabriel Noriega, SS, Grade B-: I have issues with his strike zone judgment, but am intrigued enough with his youth, glove, and overall tools to cut him some slack at this point. Could go up to B+ next year, or down to C if he can't hit at Clinton.

4) Alex Liddi, 3B, Grade B-: High Desert inflates his numbers, but I think he made some real progress. He looks like a better player to me at this point than Triunfel. Double-A will tell us a lot.

5) Carlos Triunfel, SS-3B, Grade B-: Injury mulligan. . .but at some point the numbers have to start living up to the hype. Doesn't turn 20 until February, but he looks more like a third baseman to me than a shortstop.

6) Nick Franklin, SS, Grade B-: Very intriguing middle infielder from the '09 draft, could make a great DP combo with Noriega.

7) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade B-: Pitched great at High Desert. Main concern is health. I know scouts aren't wild about him, but I prefer him to the tools goofs on the rest of the list. However, I have enough concerns about his elbow to keep him at a B-. If he's healthy I think he's going to surprise people.

8) Mario Martinez, 3B, Grade C+: Tools guy couldn't hit Midwest League pitching due to poor strike zone judgment. Young enough to overcome this, but don't let him anywhere near Greg Halman. Glove at third is a big asset.

9) Dan Cortes, RHP, Grade C+: Control went backwards big-time last year, cutting into his grade. Beavis and Butt-head public urination antics don't go over well either. Ceiling remains high if he gets his head on straight.

10) James Jones, OF, Grade C+: This one may surprise people, but this is a tools guy I would bet on. Former Long Island University pitcher has tremendous athleticism, terrific makeup, and hit well in his pro debut. Need higher-level data, but absolutely a player to watch.

11) Adam Moore, C, Grade C+: Not going to be a star, but can hit .250 with a bit of power and good ability to shut down the running game. Will have a long career.

12) Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C+: Speed demon, hits for average, draws walks, good glove, no power, future reserve outfielder but a useful one.

13) Dennis Raben, OF, Grade C+: Missed the entire year with injury. Low batting average slugger with walks when healthy.

14) Mauricio Robles, LHP, Grade C+: Live-armed lefty acquired in Washburn trade did well in limited action at High Desert. Undersized but interesting.

15) Kanaoke Texeira, RHP, Grade C+: I like him more than most people. Gets grounders with fastball/slider combination, doesn't have ceiling of some of the guys below him but a better bet to reach his floor as a middle reliever.

16) Johermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C: Borderline C+ due to power potential, has a higher ceiling than some of the guys ahead of him, but I have massive concerns about his ability to handle breaking stuff at higher levels. Could hit .300 with 30 homers at High Desert and go backwards with his genuine skills.

17) Julio Morban, OF, Grade C: Enormous potential, but currently has no command of the strike zone.

18) Greg Halman, OF, Grade C: Possibly the best set of overall tools in the minors. However, his ability to use these tools is, um. . .extremely limited to put it kindly. Makes Pedro Cerrano look like Ted Williams.

19) Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C: The Garrett Jones of the year 2013.

20) Maikel Cleto, RHP, Grade C: Great arm, but poor numbers in a limited sample size caused by visa issues. Let's see what he can do in a full season.

OTHERS (Grade C): Steve Baron, C; Tyler Blandford, RHP; Andrew Carraway, RHP; Jhmardy DeJesus,1B; Joshua Fields, RHP; Steve Hensley, RHP; Nick Hill, LHP; Kenn Kasparek, RHP; Brian Moran, LHP; Ricky Orta, RHP; Edward Paredes, LHP; Carlos Peguero, OF; Guillermo Pimentel, OF; Rich Poythress, 1B; Kyle Seager, 2B-3B; Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B; Anthony Varvaro, RHP.

This is a tough organization to get a handle on. They have a lot of guys with huge upsides, but big questions about their actual skill levels. Thus, a list put together by a traditional scout is going to look different than someone going by sabermetric performance. I take a hybrid approach with a sabermetric lean, and thus this list might not satisfy anyone except me. Such is the risk of the business.

I love Ackley, but want to see how he adapts to second base. Saunders is nearly ready and I think he'll be a solid player though not a star. After them, things get muddled quickly, with a bunch of tools guys with erratic performance records and/or small sample sizes at lower levels. High Desert introduces all kinds of distortions. Even after you adjust for the park, league, and age factors, you still wonder if you've adjusted enough. My rankings of Liddi, Triunfel, and Pineda all bear the scars of this process combined with personal observation.

There are some intuition calls here, namely with Pineda, the high and possibly reckless ranking of James Jones, as well as the relatively low ranking of Chavez. Long time readers know that I tend to be conservative, but sometimes I'll play a hunch. And as the book writing process grinds onward towards conclusion and my brain turns to mush, hunches start knocking around the fevered neurons more often.