Scouting Reports

[Grant]

Please post only scouting reports from reputable sources. We are not looking for the "I was at the game once and that dude was awesome" variety.

Also, please indicate the players position and what level he is (A, AA, AAA).

[kjd17nymets]

This is the mets top 20 prospect listing as per sbnation.com i will try and find more information and go into more detail during the next week to help make them as accurate as possible.

New York Mets Top 20 Prospects for 2009



All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.



1) Wilmer Flores, SS-3B, Grade B+: I might take some flack for this, but in this case I think his upside is higher than F-Mart. If I could have just one of them, I’d pick Flores.

2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Still extremely young, though at some point he’s got to produce better than he has. You can flip him with Flores if you prefer the guy closer to the majors.

3) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B: I’ve liked him since high school. He’s not an ace but should be a fine inning-eater.

4) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade B: Higher ceiling than Niese, but not as refined and command still needs work.

5) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B: Assuming he’s healthy, I think he’s going to be a strong across-the-board player with a high OBP.

6) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+: Could be a star if it all comes together, but still rather raw. Considering B- but for me that’s aggressive for a rookie ball guy.

7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade C+ Pitching version of Marte: lots of talent, but skills are in the developmental stages and may not pan out.

8) Bobby Parnell, RHP, Grade C+: Stats don’t match scouting reports, but he has a good sinker and could be an effective setup man.

9) Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade C+: Another bullpen option who gets ground balls.

10) Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+: Held his own after being rushed, which you have to respect, but he may just be a good platoon bat, not a regular.

11) Ike Davis, 1B-OF, Grade C+: I will cut him some slack for now. If he can’t hit, he could convert to pitching due to his strong arm.

12) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect has a decent arm, good command, and has risen rapidly in a short period of time. Could be better than many more-heralded guys.

13) Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+: Young and projectable, but if they rush him they will be sorry.

14) Scott Shaw, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect from 2008 draft, has above average stuff and showed better command in the pros than he did at Illinois.

15) Eric Beaulac, RHP, Grade C+: Another sleeper college arm, this one with a home state connection at LeMoyne.

16) Ruben Tejada, SS, Grade C+: Gets slack on the grade because he was massively rushed to the Florida State League. Controls the strike zone, has promise with the glove, very young.

17) Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C+: Another young infielder who has been pushed fast but has some upside.

18) Michael Antonini, LHP, Grade C: I cut him at the last second from the 2008 book, though he still showed up on the grade list in the back of the book. Good changeup.

19) Dylan Owen, RHP, Grade C: Polished pitcher with good command, could be swingman.

20) Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade C: Sleeper high school pick from 2008 draft bears close attention.



Others: Robert Carson, LHP; Dock Doyle, C; Lucas Duda, 1B: Jeurys Familia, RHP; Junior Guerra, RHP; Zach Lutz, 3B: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF; Francisco Pena, C: Cesar Puello, OF; Elvin Ramirez, RHP; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B: Javier Rodriguez, OF; Brant Rustich, RHP; Chris Schwinden, RHP; Tobi Stoner, RHP; Josh Thole, C; Nate Vineyard, LHP.



As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now.



If there are other guys you think should be included, let me know. Also, what is the deal with Nate Vineyard? I keep hearing he has quit baseball, but I haven’t found any details about this. I don’t want to dump him until I find out exactly what’s going on.



SYSTEM IN BRIEF:

The Mets continue to make a big push in Latin America, and they seem to have a knack for finding some interesting pitchers in the later rounds of the draft. They like to rush guys quickly, particularly pushing the Latin American kids hard, F-Mart being the best example. Whether this helps or hinders development remains to be seen. They could use more depth in position players. They have the financial resources to be a lot more aggressive in the draft than they have been, so there’s really no excuse for this NOT to be a good farm system. I think it ranks about the middle of the pack right now. They have made significant progress and there is quite a bit of upside here, but more needs to be done.

[kjd17nymets]

I'm not sure how crazy and in depth you want these but Amazin' Avenue did a great job with scouting reports for the mets prospects so i will put my faith in them and borrow thier reports (hopefully that is alright, its for a good cause, making the show even better). Hope you enjoy

[kjd17nymets]

Cesar Puello OF
-scouting report from 7/8/09
Vitals

Born: 4/1/91

Height/Weight: 6'2'' 195 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: NDFA from La Romana, DR

Current Team/Level: Kingsport Mets, Appalachian League (Rookie Ball)

Scouting Report:

Quick and lean, Puello has all the raw tools you like to see in a young outfielder. He has a strong, athletic frame that should fill out nicely as he ages. He has basestealer's speed, a strong throwing arm, lots of range in the outfield, and burgeoning gap power. It's the skills where things get a bit tricky. Puello isn't a total hacker, but he's not a particularly patient hitter, nor is he particularly adept at making consistent contact yet. As with most teenagers, there is a lot of development to do on this side of the scouting spectrum, and unlike other IFAs the Mets have pushed quickly through their system, Puello has neither the plus batspeed to drive the ball consistently nor the strength and bat control to generate consistent loft. These things could change as he matures and adds strength, but such blessings might not come without their curses. The important thing to remember here is that there's a lot of development left here, so any excitements or disappointments should be tempered.

Statistics

Hitting:

Year Level G PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP HBP SB CS GB% LD% FB% HR/FB
2008 GCL 40 163 151 46 6 0 1 5 32 0.305 0.350 0.364 0.059 0.375 6 13 5 57.00% 6.10% 36.80% 2.40%
2009 APP 10 47 42 13 1 0 1 1 8 0.310 0.370 0.405 0.095 0.364 3 1 0 62.80% 11.40% 25.70% 11.10%



Fielding:

Year Pos Outs Chances TotalZone
2008 RF 56 94 +5



Because the set is so small, the player so young, and the Rookie League statistical upkeep so unreliable, this is a case where it would be more advisable to follow the anecdotal telephone game-style scouting reports than the numbers themselves. Still, for what it's worth, the high BABIPs and low LD%s mean neutralizing these numbers for luck is going to yield an ugly result.

The only major thing I would suggest we pay attention to is the poor K/BB. If Puello can move those numbers back towards each other, he goes from an all-tools, few-skills prospect to someone you actually wouldn't mind calling one of the better outfield prospects in your system. The one other particular statistic to take note of is the HBPs. Nine HBPs in 50 games is quite a lot, and if the rate continues as the set increases, it would be an indication of a sustainable "skill" (though in this case, I'm not sure that's the proper term). This would mean his OBPs will likely be quite a bit higher than his BB% would suggest, which is a double-edged sword. The pure run value of a HBP isn't any different from a BB, but it is not the same indicator of process (and therefore, by proxy, progress). Thus in terms of progressive evaluation, this will be a case where BB% is going to be a more important litmus test than pure OBP will, relatively speaking.

Considering the BABIPs has remained high, I'm not willing to neutralize his numbers for luck quite yet. Three big non-luck factors in his LD%, BABIP disparity could include: his speed, inferior defenses, and the unreliability of the batted-ball data for minor leaguers. I hope it's more the first thing on that list, but I strongly suspect the LD% is a little unreliable, considering that a similar phenomenon holds for more established prospects at the higher levels of the Mets' system (Nieuwenhuis, Thole).

The Hit-By-Pitches are interesting, albeit a little worrisome. I would like to see some video on Puello, not just for his mechanics, but also where he stands in the box. After last year, I was ready to call his .350 OBP a fluke, but after 3 HBPs already this year, I'll say: be wary, but keep watch.

The most encouraging thing for me, here, is the one homerun already. Hopefully, this modest flash of power is a sign of things to come, as it's hard to draw any more conclusions from such a small sample. Some like to cite his increase in OPS from month-to-month last year, but that's probably as much coincidence as it is improvement.

Similarly, it seems too soon to make a judgment based on his fielding stats, but a positive number is good to see and matches the scouting reports.

Comparable Players

1. Scott Boras' pamphlet says:

Carl Crawford

Year League G PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP SB CS HBP
1999 APPY-R 60 278 260 83 14 4 13 47 0.319 0.350 0.404 0.085 0.382 17 4 1
2000 SAL-A 135 609 564 170 21 11 6 32 102 0.301 0.342 0.410 0.109 0.351 55 9 3
2001 SOUL-AA 132 585 537 147 24 3 4 36 90 0.274 0.323 0.352 0.078 0.317 36 20 4
2002 IL-AAA 85 383 353 105 17 9 7 26 69 0.297 0.335 0.456 0.159 0.351 26 8 2



As far as comping 18 year olds goes, this obviously a nice one for Puello. Puello is only a few months older than Crawford was when he finished his 1999 season, and the similarities are fairly obvious. Both players are/were low power, low contact, high BABIP, midsized, basestealing outfielders. The strikeout rates here are very similar, and while Crawford walked a bit more, he doesn't have those sneaky HBPs. What we see as we continue down Crawford's career is what I will suspect will be a recurring theme in these "ceiling" comps. He didn't show any major improvements level-to-level early on. His rates remained similar through Double-A, and despite a little power surge in 2002, it still took him another couple seasons in the majors to crack a .305 wOBA. This is what will be important in determining Puello's "prospectability". If he keeps doing what he's doing and maintains his athleticism, it might just take a little bit of extra raw strength to push him down a path that will eventually spit him back out as an above average player.

2. Impartial observer says:

Carlos Gomez

Year League G PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP SB CS HBP
2004 2 Lvls (GCL-R APPY-R) 57 239 221 62 17 4 1 7 38 0.281 0.324 0.407 0.126 0.330 17 2 8
2005 SAL-A 120 539 487 134 13 6 8 32 88 0.275 0.331 0.376 0.101 0.313 64 24 9
2006 EL-AA 120 486 430 121 24 8 7 27 97 0.281 0.350 0.423 0.142 0.340 41 9 20
2007 PCL-AAA 36 157 140 40 8 2 2 15 27 0.286 0.363 0.414 0.128 0.342 17 4 2



This is another solid comp for Puello. Gomez even has the early HBPs instead of extra walks, at least compared to Crawford. Interestingly, despite having perhaps the best raw speed of the three, Gomez didn't have a ridiculously high BABIP early on, though he did also sustain one well above average through his minor league career. The problem with Gomez, unlike Crawford, is that instead of maintaining his early minor league rates in the upper levels, he showed some obvious signs of regression. When Carlos jumped from A-Ball to Double-A he experienced a notable increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks. Gomez still went on to become a reasonable major league player, but the vast majority of his value is tied up in his defense. This seems like a very possible path to the majors for a player like Puello, and it accents the point that the thing to watch for is a lack of level-to-level regression, even if there is no apparent statistical progress.

3. Steve Phillips says orally craps:

Reggie Abercrombie

Year League G PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP SB CS HBP
2000 PION-R 54 253 220 60 7 1 2 22 66 0.273 0.360 0.341 0.068 0.374 32 8 8
2001 SAL-A 135 531 486 110 17 3 10 19 154 0.226 0.272 0.335 0.109 0.298 44 11 12
2002 FSL-A+ 132 569 526 145 23 13 10 27 158 0.276 0.321 0.426 0.150 0.370 41 17 9
2003 SOUL-AA 116 479 448 117 25 7 15 16 164 0.261 0.298 0.449 0.188 0.371 28 9 9



There's an obvious statistical difference here between Abercrombie and Puello, Crawford, and Gomez. Abercrombie was an absolute whiff machine. He's another example of a player with excellent raw athleticism, but he was never able to make any kind of consistent contact. Still, the similarities here are still generally positive, despite what Steve Phillips wants you to believe. Abercrombie's BABIP has generally stayed high, though it tailed off a bit more in the upper levels. He also added considerable power as he grew up, but his plate discipline just never improved enough to become a viable major league player. He got hurt after 2005 and it essentially put an end to a prospect career that was hanging on by a thread to begin with. If Puello starts whiffing like crazy in the upper levels, we should use this kind of comp to recognize it as a monster red flag.

Last year, Puello played alongside OF Javier Rodriguez (age 18) and IF Jefry Marte (17). All international signees, their respective career paths tell us something about Puello.

Name AB AVG OBP SLG
Javier Rodriguez 135 .193 .258 .237
Jefry Marte 154 .325 .398 .532
Cesar Puello 151 .305 .350 .364



Marte, the least athletic of the three, hit the best while playing mostly 3B. He was promoted to A-Ball this year, where he's flopped with a .586 OPS. Javier Rodriguez never made it out of the Gulf Coast League. The lesson: Puello isn't refined but he's a baseball player. I don't mean that in the Steve Phillips, captain obvious sort-of-way, I mean his tools have begun to translate to skills. Rodriguez proves that transformation is not as automatic as we always think. The lesson regarding Marte is that the Mets not rushing Puello with his teammates is smart, not a vote of non-confidence. (Marte and Rodriguez also make a good disclaimer about rookie league stats: They can prove you suck, but not that you're good.)

Conclusion:

He's a prospect, because along with Nieuwenhuis and F! he is one of the few OF farm hands with legitimate tools. He's this low, because it's hard to read anything from his stats so far, and scouting reports are scarse. Right now, all we can do is wait for some breakthrough on either of those fronts. He doesn't have to get his BB/K to 1.00 overnight, he has to make enough progress to keep producing in the same way that he has in the Rookie Leagues as he moves up the ladder. Even though he's so young, we can make an educated guess that he will need to remain at least a plus athlete to become a viable major league player. That makes the possibility of injury even riskier, not in terms of likelihood but in terms of the damage it could do to his development. But it also means if he does develop his skills a bit and manages to stay healthy, he could blossom before our eyes.

[kjd17nymets]

Eric Beaulac RHP
-scouting report 7/15/09

Vitals

Born 11/13/86

Physical Stats: 6'5" 190 lbs.

Position: Relief Pitcher

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 9th round 2008, Le Moyne College

Current Team: Savannah Sand Gnats (Hi-A South Atlantic League)

Scouting Report:

Scouting Report: Beaulac uses his large frame to generate heat that he can dial up to 94 mph, though he will generally sit closer to 90-92 mph with it. At age 22, it's unlikely he will add velocity, though not impossible. His out pitch is a razor-blade slider that usually sits in the low 80s. Beaulac had spent most of last year and the beginning of this year as a starting pitcher, but has been moved to the bullpen full time recently as per his request (though he did recently make a spot start). This should help him keep his average velocity up and help him get by with two good pitches against more advanced hitters down the line.

Mechanics




Beaulac has good tempo, working very fast to the plate. His arm action seems very fluid and loose, coming straight over the top. The one concern from this video is the time between his legplant and his throw is too long, which would rob him of some momentum toward home. That may or may not have something to do with working from the stretch, and sadly this video from him in college is the most recent I could find.

Statistics

Year Level G GS IP BF H SO BB ERA WHIP FIP SO% BB% BABIP GB% FB% LD% IFF/F HR/FB
2008 3 Lvls 14 8 48 209 38 60 26 3.38 1.333 3.31 28.70% 12.40% 0.324 54.80% 30.60% 10.50% 11.80% 5.30%
2009 SALL-A 17 10 75.1 311 65 90 27 2.63 1.221 3.25 28.90% 8.70% 0.324 46.50% 35.20% 13.40% 11.50% 7.20%



Beaulac has been a dominant strikeout pitcher in his young career, posting a 28.8 K% across three levels in 106.2 IP. It's his BB% where things get shaky, and the utility of the move to the bullpen becomes clear. While his strikeout rate also improves out of the pen and his GB% continues to hover around 50%, he's walked only 10 of the 150 (6.6%) batters he's faced in relief at the time of this writing, as opposed to 43 of the 366 (11.7%) batter he's faced as a starter. In terms of innings instead of batters faced, this is the difference between a 2.31 BB/9 as a reliever and 4.41 BB/9 as a starter. He also has what appears to be a budding platoon split trying to rear its ugly head, as he has an easier time striking out right handed hitters and a bit more of a penchant to issue bases on balls to lefties. This could be a problem once he starts facing more advanced hitters. The insight you can generate from the information on Beaulac is rather limited considering his age relative to his level, but there are certainly some promising signs.

One of those rule-of-thumbs of pitching statistics is subtract 1.00 from a starters' FIP to project his bullpen performance, and Beaulac's tRA in the bullpen is .95 lower than in the rotation. While I'm generally against switches to the bullpen since relievers are so inherently less valuable, it may have been innevitable with a two-pitch guy like Beaulac. I do worry, however, that pitching in the best rotation in the Mets' system (Carson-Familia-Schwinden-Kaplan) had something to do with his decision. Regardless, stepping back from the reliever/starter question, Beaulac is one of the most exciting arms in the entire system. Surrounded by control-groundball specialists, Beaulac has posted a ridiculous 11 K/9 in the minors (and his final year in college). He's made tremendous strides on his control and all that's left is a test against better competition. If anyone in the Mets' system warrants promotion, it's Beaulac.

Fun With Comparisons


Scott Boras says:

Brad Lidge

The first thing that stands out upon a comparison with Lidge are the physical and repertoire similarities to Beaulac. They're both big, strong right handers, both throw in the low to mid 90s, and both feature a slider as an out pitch. Throw in some statistical similarities, such as a dominant early strikeout rate paired with shaky command, as well as the fact that Lidge also began his early minors career as a starter and converted to the pen, and this actually seems like a reasonable idea of what Beaulac's ceiling might look like. Lidge lasted as a starter a bit longer than Beaulac has, but didn't really break out until he was moved to the bullpen as a 24 year old in the upper levels. Obviously, Beaulac has a very, very long way to go before you give him a title like "Lights Out Lidge" (for possible future reference, maybe Bat Bustin' Beaulac?). But his strikeout rate is worth keeping an eye on, as it has been an indication of dominance thus far, and if it stays that way in the upper levels, there could be some closer potential here. The other thing Lidge tells us is that not all relievers get "fast tracked". Though he was a late convert to relief, Lidge didn't appear in a major league game until he was 25, and didn't start saving games on a consistent basis until he was 27. It may be tempting to get impatient watching Beaulac dominate younger hitters, but that doesn't mean he's not on a legitimate development path or hinder his overall upside, rather it hinders only the precision of the inferences we can draw.

Impartial Observer Says:

Justin Speier

Unlike Lidge and Beaulac, Speier has spent his entire professional career in relief. Also a tall right handed pitcher, Speier, more than anything, is an example of the volatility of relief pitching. In limited exposure to low minors hitting early on, Speier looked like he had the potential for dominance, posting strong strikeout rates and even improving his command as he moved up the chain. As a result, the Cubs showed little hesitation in putting him on the "relief fast track," pushing him to Double-A by his second professional season. A troubling semi-trend, however, was the way various leagues would seem to catch up to Speier the longer he was exposed to them. Despite very little compelling evidence that Speier's career path had been set one way or the other, by the time he reached the upper levels, the Cubs felt they had seen enough, and Speier began bouncing around different organizations, and eventually carving out a solid, albeit inconsistent, major league career. The moral of this story is simply not to read too much into anything a relief pitcher is doing one way or the other. We can establish trends and possible correlations, but legitimate inference takes a sample size quite a bit larger than most relief pitchers are afforded year-to-year, and in this case, larger than minor leaguers are often afforded level-to-level.

Steve Phillips Says:

Conor Robertson

Like Speier, Robertson did not start his career as a starting pitcher, and like all of these pitchers, he spent much of his early career dominating leagues that were comprised mostly of players quite a bit younger than him. His strikeout rates were dominant, and there weren't even the same level of somewhat troubling command issues we find present in a guy like Beaulac or even Lidge. The problems came in the upper levels, and with very little warning. If there was a trend that indicated Robertson was due for difficulty in the upper levels, it was that his command seemed to regress each time he moved up in the lower levels, though it didn't turn ugly until he'd already departed Low-A. Before he knew it, he started getting molested by hitters in the upper levels. This is a red flag to be wary of with Beaulac should it crop up, especially considering it's the one nit worth picking thus far amongst his accomplishments on the lower levels of the farm. The book isn't entirely closed on Robertson yet, but he's 27 now and pitching for the Buffalo Bisons, and some combination of poor process on his part and poor defense have yielded some ugly results.

Projected Value

Ceiling WAR: 3.0

Median WAR: 0.7

Conclusion

The move to the bullpen was probably the right one for Beaulac, and it will give him all the opportunities in the world to crack the upper levels and eventually the majors. I would expect continued success in the FSL, especially in relief, before the real tests happen in Double-A and Triple-A. At the very least, with a plus slider and average to slightly above average fastball, Beaulac should make a fine future ROOGY. It could happen fast, and it could take time, these things can vary with this type of pitcher, but there is interesting prospect potential here, with both reasonable floor and decent ceiling.

[kjd17nymets]

Nick Carr
-scouting report 7/24/09
Vitals

Born 4/19/87

Physical Stats: 6'1" 195 lbs.

Position: Relief Pitcher

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 41st round 2005, College of Southern Idaho

Current Team: St. Lucie Mets (Hi-A Florida State League)



Scouting Report

Carr is big bulky relief pitcher who relies on low-mid 90s heat to miss bats and consistently generate groundballs. Actually a few months younger than Eric Beaulac, Carr has also been moved to the bullpen this year. In many respects, he's similar to Beaulac, in that he works mostly off his fastball and uses a slider as his primary second pitch, and the knock on him is command troubles. However he's shorter and thicker around the middle than Beaulac, and when he's right generates more natural "run" on his fastball, though his slider lags behind a bit and his command has been a more problematic. He also features a hard changeup that flashes average and should be a fine third pitch for a relief prospect. His progress has been a bit on the slow side, but it's also been quite steady, and most of the last big hurdles for Carr to cross mechanical ones. Oddly enough, he's been MIA since mid-June, though I can't find a specific report of injury.

Mechanics:

Carr works quickly, pitching with almost a slide-step out of the stretch. His tempo is good as a result, but his delivery and path to the plate is a bit odd.


He only really lifts his leg slightly higher than that before pulling the ball out of the glove Stokes-style and driving forward.

Then, with his foot planted, he slings his arm across his body, causing him to fall toward first base. This slinging-motion explains some of control problems. It also allows Carr to generate velocity, albeit not particularly efficiently. It comes as little surprise, then, that Carr has trouble disguising his changeup, due to varying arm-speeds. He also finishes with a little recoil, which some people identify as an injury risk, but I don't really buy into that.

Statistics

Year Level G GS IP BF H R ER HR SO BB ERA WHIP
2006 APPY-R 12 11 48 215 49 29 26 5 44 23 4.88 1.50
2007 NYPL-A 14 14 66.1 280 55 31 27 4 74 27 3.80 1.236
2008 (NYPL-A+FSL-A+) 26 25 119 527 125 75 69 10 96 54 5.22 1.504
2009 FSL-A+ 14 2 42.2 183 36 21 17 1 42 28 3.59 1.50



FIP SO% BB% SO/BB BABIP GB% FB% LD% IF/F HR/FB
4.32 20.50% 10.70% 1.91 0.319 48.60% 34.50% 13.50% 14.10% 9.80%
3.49 26.40% 9.60% 2.74 0.298 54.40% 28.60% 13.20% 18.40% 7.70%
4.42 18.20% 10.20% 1.78 0.324 44.40% 39.20% 15.30% 14.30% 6.80%
4.21 23.00% 15.30% 1.5 0.327 55.10% 32.20% 8.50% 14.60% 2.60%



While the high BB% is discouraging, the fact that he's continued to miss bats throughout his FSL tenure is also very encouraging. Because his problems are primarily mechanical the movement on both his fastball and his slider can be inconsistent, ranging between plus and below average from outing-to-outing. He also has a tendency to slow down his armspeed on changeups. These are still problems that are correctable natural development though. If he can wrangle his command in, everything could fall into place very nicely, and he could become a nice option for a Major League bullpen in short order. His ERA and HR/FB in the pitcher friendly FSL does mask his true current ability a bit, but remember, he's actually a bit younger than Beaulac. Keep an eye on his BB% the rest of this year and next. If it starts to tick up, his strong FSL aided ERA should be more of a quirk than a troubling sign.

The great paradoxes of Carr's statistical profile this season is that, while his walks have increased, he's maintained his high strikeout rate with more called-strike threes (although it's mostly an issue of sample size). Some pitchers walk more when they reach higher levels because hitters are making more contact, taking their pitches outside the zone, and working deeper counts, but that doesn't seem to be the case with Carr, who continues to get the K's. The groundballs are also encouraging, and his tRA is actually lower than his FIP at 3.77. As Mark noted, though, the FSL is a pitcher's league (3.95 avg. tRA) and the real stat to watch is the walks.

Fun With Comparisons

Derek Carty suggests:

Frank Francisco

The Texas shutdown closer moved about the same speed through the minors as Carr is now, with his BB/9 rising steadily as he went. For his minor league career, he had a 4.8 BB/9 but a 9.8 K/9, and looked trapped in the minors at age 24, unable to get his walk rate under 5. Then, thanks to some good cup-of-coffee showings, he got a shot and showed demonstrable improvement every year in the majors. At age 28, he lowered his BB/9 to 3.7 and this year it's down to 2.6. He's a late bloomer, sure, but a shutdown closer.

Impartial Observer says:

Fernando Rodney

Nick Carr has yet to post the strikeout numbers of Frank Francisco, though, and has demonstrated marginally better control. That description fits Fernando Rodney well, a player who basically carried a Nick-Carr skill-set all the way to the majors. Rodney is a very inconsistent reliever year-to-year largely due to his fluctuating control, and that's probably the type-of-reliever Carr will be, if he reaches the majors.

Steve Phillips says:

Derrick Turnbow (2008 version)

Turnbow, like Rodney, posted peripherals very similar to Carr in the low minors before finally getting a chance with Milwaukee in 2005, a year he posted a 1.74 ERA and went to the all-star game. That would be an optimal outcome for Carr, but I'm not talking about that Derrick Turnbow. The Derrick Turnbow of today, whose mechanical problems prevented him from throwing any strikes, is the low-end projection here. In fact, Turnbow could be all three of these comparables, he has had such an up-and-down career, but I figured it was better to include some variety.

Projected Value

Perfect-world WAR: 2.0

Median WAR: 0.3

Conclusion: Wait and see. You can't learn stuff, but you can learn control and mechanics. Whether Carr is a quick flameout with injuries or a shutdown reliever will depend on how well he adjusts.

[kjd17nymets]

Francisco Pena
-scouting report 7/31/09

Born: 10/12/89
Physical Stats: 6'2" 230 lbs.
Position: Catcher
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: NDFA, Santo Domingo, DR
Current Team: St. Lucie Mets (Hi-A)

Scouting Report: Despite his size, the son of former Major Leaguer Tony Pena has surprising athleticism. He is agile behind the plate with a cannon arm, and has lots of raw strength just dying to be translated into on-the-field power. The offensive numbers may not bear it out, but Pena has taken some interesting developmental strides this year, most notably in his actions behind the plate. He seems to be moving much better and getting plus grades across the board for his defense, whereas in the past the potential was frequently noted, but was much more raw ability than finished product. Where he previously received criticism for things like conditioning and defensive consistency, this year he has received far more praise. The problem is his bat, which seems to be coming along at a snail's pace.

Statistics

YR LG G PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BB% SO% AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP HBP SB CS GB% LD% FB% HR/FB
2007 (SAL-A) 103 399 367 77 12 0 5 24 76 6.00% 19.00% 0.210 0.263 0.283 0.073 0.248 4 1 1 58.00% 7.50% 34.20% 5.00%
2008 (SAL-A) 105 426 397 105 22 3 6 25 95 5.90% 22.30% 0.264 0.308 0.38 0.116 0.330 1 0 48.90% 11.50% 39.70% 5.00%
2009 (FSL-HiA) 72 269 276 61 11 1 7 13 57 4.80% 21.20% 0.221 0.264 0.344 0.123 0.254 4 0 1 44.70% 10.70% 44.60% 7.30%



Part of his struggles is the strange way the Mets have handled him. In another organization he might have just made his full season debut this year. He's been clearly overmatched every step of the way; struggling to make hard contact, hitting for just a touch power, and not drawing many walks. The good news is he has also improved in this department as well. His second tour of duty in the SAL was far less brutal than his first, though still not worth getting very excited over. Particularly encouraging was the much more balanced GB/LD/FB rates in 2008. Then after a dreadful start to his career in the FSL this year, he's actually managed to finally flash some of his raw power by hitting five HR in July, a career best in any calendar month, and particularly impressive for such a young player in the pitcher friendly FSL. A 7.3% HR/FB for a 19 year old in a league where homers go to die is quite encouraging. Also encouraging is the fact that he's maintained last year's more balance batted ball profiled, which bodes well for his power production moving forward. His contact and walk rates still haven't improved, in fact they've regressed, which is troubling. But considering he looks like he's turning into a plus defensive catcher, you have to be happy with any kind of offensive glimmer of hope. He's still young enough where there's plenty of time for him to figure out how to hit, and if he can maintain his conditioning and become a dependable defensive backstop, he should still have a nice chance of becoming a big league backup at least. Whether he'll ever earn a starting job will be a question of how much offense he finds over the next few years.

The similarities between his LD% for this year and 2008 are interesting and make me wonder whether he got some bad luck this year, good luck last year, or whether the LD% are just messed up, which is a distinct possibility with these minor league batted ball profiles. I wouldn't say the walk rate has regressed, as a decline of sorts should be expected when promoting such a young player from SALLY to the Florida State League. Without getting too much further in the minutiae of this data, however, it's important to take a step back and remember how monumentally bad Pena has been every season so far in the minors. The Mets rushed him, yes. He's got time, yes. But sometime, he's got to hit. Stocking your minor leagues with defensive minded players are premium positions, who have some offensive upside, is always a good strategy, so I suppose we'll wait and see.

Expert Smackdown

He sucks. He can't hit and I don't think he'll start. He has a good arm but is still raw behind the plate. Maybe he'll make it as a backup, but I don't buy him as a regular at all.

The son of Tony Pena, who won four Gold Gloves in the 1980s, Pena was a big-budget signing out of the Dominican three years ago, but he spent his first two years doing little offensively in the Low-A Sally League. Still just 19, his overall batting line is still a poor .237/.281/.369, but he's as hot as he has ever been as a pro of late, going 8-for-16 in his last three games with a home run in each one. A plus defender, he's still got a chance to turn into a solid big league backstop.

Fun With Comps

The funky ARL path the Mets have put Pena on combined with his somewhat peculiar size for such a young catcher have made him something of an oddity. As such, in contrast to other comp sections we have been running, Pena's will be more about how we might hope/expect his career to turn out, rather than how he's faring right now compared to others who went onto have success or not.

1) Scott Boras Says: Jim Sundberg

The second overall pick in the 1973 draft, Sundberg was a catcher whose bat developed just enough to make him an extremely useful player in the majors. During his peak, Sundberg's BA hovered around .270 with good plate discipline and very modest power. The comparison comes with Pena as a good-sized catcher and a plus-defender who was a 4.5-WAR player in his prime and a .5 WAR catcher when his body couldn't handle the demands of full time catching. Good defense and passable bat, however, make him a the 25th best catcher all time, despite durability issues in his later career.


2) Impartial Observer says: Tony Pena, Sr.
Since ARL comps are so hard to come by with Pena, his famous bloodlines seem like the next logical place to look, and who better than Frankie's pop? A strong defender behind the plate, Pena feigned offensive competency for a long enough time to carry a starting job at the big league level for a number of years. While Tony's good offensive years were almost all built with solid batting averages and a bit of power, we might expect Pena's to favor power over contact right now, though that's more conjecture than anything else, and we'll likely have to wait until Pena isn't two or three years younger than the rest of his league before we can make such an assertion with any kind of certainty. As it was, Tony's defense and varying degrees of decent offense yielded some productive overall seasons, and he topped out at a 5.5 WAR in 1984, though generally stayed around 1.5-3.5 through his prime.

3) Steve Phillips Says: Ramon Castro (minus bat?)
Now, we all lovingly remember Ramon as the better offensive catcher option the Mets never took proper advantage of these last couple years, but he does tell us a few things about the low end expectation for what Pena might become, as well provide a reasonable physical comparison. Though Pena may never hit as well as Castro, he is a good enough backstop where he should be able to eventually find himself a second string job on a big league team as a defensive specialist whose primary offensive weapon is a touch of power. Defense behind the plate is always at a premium, and so long as Pena can maintain his conditioning and defensive work ethic, adding consistent Blastro-type power would only serve to make him more valuable than this comp implies. The flipside to this is that when big guys like Castro and Pena play such a physically demanding position, conditioning really can become a major issue. If Pena's bulk winds up taking a toll on his mobility, he would really need to be able to produce offensively the way Castro has to carry a backup job, though in both cases pure arm strength is a nice tool to fall back on that will carry some base defensive value by itself.

[kjd17nymets]

Eddie Kunz is next on the list but im going to skip him as he should already be in the game

Eric Niesen
-scouting report 9/13/09
Vitals:

Born 9/4/85

Physical Stats: 6'0" 192 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted: 3rd Round 2007, Wake Forest University

Current Team: Binghamton Mets

Scouting Report:

Niesen is a little lefty with a live arm. Using a slightly unusual three-quarter style delivery, Niesen can generate plus heat, dialing his fastball into the mid-90s despite his small stature. He also features a slider that is at times a very effective second pitch, and at times isn't very useful at all. His changeup is below average. Deception is a strength for Niesen, and helps him dominate left handed batters, though it comes with some mechanical inconsistencies. Due to his lack of height, Niesen has a difficult time generating downhill plane on his pitches, and as a result has a tendency to pitch up in the zone and generate lots of fly balls.

Mechanics:


His delivery here seems fairly fluid with good tempo. His arm drags a little and he has a delayed-recoil of the arm, but it doesn't seem particularly violent. At Wake he only hit the mid-90s out the bullpen, but the Mets decided to move him back into a starting role.

This video gives a clear shot of his 3/4 delivery, which accounts for his platoon split. Also notice the pause between when he pulls the ball back and when he moves his arm forward. Niesen is probably "scap loading" or loading the scapula before delivery, which can be a big driver of arm speed. It could just a quirk of his 3/4 delivery, but the pointing of his elbow toward thirdbase makes me think otherwise.

Statistics:

Traditional

Year Lvl IP H R HR K BB
2007 SLU 3 3 0 0 3 1
2008 SLU 114.3 125 66 9 74 44
2009 SLU 57.7 52 25 5 49 16
2009 BIN 83 75 46 6 85 41



Batted-ball:

Year LVL GB% LD% FB% BABIP HR/FB% tRA
2007 SLU 37.5% 50.0% 12.5% 0.375 0.00% 10.07
2008 SLU 47.0% 15.1% 30.1% 0.309 4.64% 4.86
2009 SLU 44.4% 8.8% 33.3% 0.283 5.38% 2.91
2009 BIN 38.3% 16.1% 37.8% 0.308 4.44% 4.72



After a fairly mediocre prospect career in his first two season, Niesen has really broken out in a big way this year and put himself squarely on the radar. He misses lots bats, especially against fellow southpaws. Since his promotion to Binghamton, Niesen has struck out an astounding 37.3% of the lefty batters he's faced (34 Ks in 91 PAs). He has also shown excellent improvement through the season, posting a 2.72 FIP since August 1, a streak spanning 52.2 IP. The biggest concern for Niesen, as with many young pitchers discussed so far, is his command. He struggles to control the zone and has had a very difficult time limiting free passes since reaching Double-A, with a BB% of 11.6%. There's lots of reason for optimism as long as he keeps his K% so high, but it's a trend to keep an eye on.

With 83 IP in AA, it's fairly safe to say that Niesen's sudden spike in K% was more real than illusory. The control is worrisome and the main thing to focus on going forward, but at this level I'd rather have a dominating pitcher with control problems than one that pounds the zone with average stuff. Minor league batted ball data is somewhat unreliable, but for a pitcher who so often pitches up in the zone, his consistent homerun suppression and groundball rates are encouraging. Obviously, Citi Field's dimensions would compliment a pitcher with his approach.

Fun with Comparable Players:

Scott Boras says: Ted Lilly

Lilly was another little power lefty who took some time to develop. Lilly remained in the minors through his mid 20s, a scenario that seems likely for Niesen, despite his solid arsenal. Lilly actually reached the upper levels at a younger age and didn't have command issues quite as extreme as Niesen. Still, he represents a good picture of what the outcome for Niesen might look like if he wrangles in his breaking ball and solidifies his command. And like Lilly, it will still probably take Niesen at least another year or two before he has a chance to be an effective starter at the major league level.

Impartial Observer says: Mike Gonzalez

Probably a more appropriate comparison in terms of minor league progression and statistics, Gonzalez was also a slow moving lefty starter who always missed bats in the minors, but had some real struggles with his command. He also spent his age 23 season between HiA and Double-A, and had similar success that season, though it took him quite a bit longer and a transition to relief pitching to become a full time major leaguer. He finally converted to the bullpen for his age 25 season. Though he would continue to struggle a bit with control, he would throw only 49 more minor league innings before becoming a full time big leaguer, a stretch in which he would post a 36.2 K%. Gonzalez would go on to carve out a very nice career as a solid closer on some second division clubs. Though there's no guarantee Niesen will ever be good enough to close, he could very well be more than just a LOOGY should he wind up in the pen.

Steve Phillips Says: Pick a generic LOOGY.

Niesen looks like a pretty safe bet to be a guy who can retire left handed hitters, and though the upside is there for more, you have to figure Mr. Phillips has a good chance to be right about this one.

Value:

Ceiling WAR: 3.0

Median WAR: 1.0

The starter v. reliever question has a lot of bearing on his Win-value, as a move to the bullpen would put his potential value more in the 0-1.5 range.

Conclusion:

The nice thing about Niesen as this point is that he looks like the kind of guy who will, at the very least, make a very effective LOOGY. But he's also not a low-upside arm. He has the kind of power arsenal that could lead to any number of possible career paths. Given his age and uneven development until this year, the most likely scenario probably dumps him in the bullpen eventually, but a spike in command could turn him into a very effective starter.

[kjd17nymets]

Dillon Gee
-scouting report 12/29/09
Vitals

Born: April 28, 1986

Physical Stats: 6'1" 195 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 21st Round 2007, University of Texas-Arlington

Most Recent Team: Buffalo Bisons



Scouting Report

Gee has the unfortunate stigma of being a small right handed pitcher with a mediocre fastball. Despite the adversity, he has made his way to the upper levels of the system and had some success. His upside is still severely limited by his lack of a quality fastball or a dominant secondary pitch, but he has already defied the curve a bit by making it as far as he has. Delivering from a fairly high arm angle, one of Gee's strengths is an arsenal that has some depth, despite its lack of dominance. He throws three different pitches, a fastball that generally sits 89-91 mph with some movement, a solid changeup, and usable slider. Though none of the three pitches grades as an above-average major league pitch, he commands them all well, and can throw all three for strikes in any count. The changeup in particular had helped him manage left handed batters before he reached Triple-A. Unfortunately, Gee was shut down after a May 25th start with a strained right shoulder. There was initially a report that he would undergo surgery to have his labrum repaired, but it was eventually decided he would opt for rehab rather than surgery. There's been little news on Gee lately, but reports were that he should be ready to start throwing well before Spring Training.

Statistics

Traditional

Year Lvl IP BF H R HR K BB K% BB% K/BB ERA FIP
2007 BKLN 62.0 250 57 17 1
56 9 22.4% 3.6% 6.22 2.47 2.44
2008 SLU 127.3 510 117 49 6 94 19 18.4% 3.7% 2.58 3.25 3.10
2008 BIN 27.0 101 18 4 1 20 5 17.8% 5.0% 4.00 1.33 3.03
2009 BUF 48.1 209 47 22 5 42 16 20.1% 7.7% 2.65 4.10 3.93



Batted-ball

Year LVL GB% LD% FB% BABIP HR/FB% tRA
2007 BKLN 46.6% 12.0% 40.3% 0.325 1.3%

2008 SLU 39.4% 12.9% 37.1% 0.288 3.4% 3.07
2009 BIN 45.3% 14.7% 29.3% 0.230 3.4% 3.08
2009 BUF 39.7% 19.9% 30.1% 0.298 8.5% 4.42

The injury is a pretty significant setback for Gee. He's kept his peripheral numbers strong as he's moved through the upper levels. His walk rate in Triple-A was really the last hurdle he had to climb before earning himself a real shot at a spot on the big league roster. Command was his big strength prior to this year, but it regressed to merely average against the hitters of the International League. Because he doesn't have a dominant GB% and because its hard to imagine him maintaining his solid K% against major league hitters, limiting free passes is absolutely essential to Gee's success. Now he has to start all over again and prove that the limited arm-strength he had prior to the injury is still there along with his command. Its possible that he could pick up where he left off, but hardly certain. He could have been a really nice option going into 2010 if he had a healthy 2009, but now future big league success is harder to predict for Gee than it was a year ago. Given his skillset, its also worth mentioning that Gee probably doesn't have relief pitching as a built in alternative if he doesn't last as a starter. His lack of a truly dominant pitch would limit his usefulness in the pen as much as in the rotation, if not more. That's not to say he couldn't wind up in a major league bullpen, just that relief pitching isn't really an automatic "floor" for Gee the way it is for some of the harder throwing arms in the upper levels.

It's kind of surprising how well Gee's pitched to this point in his career, but his is a classic case of the stuff not matching the peripherals. The two ways to limit your walk rate include throwing quality strikes and throwing hittable pitches. If you believe the minor league batted-ball data, it appears Gee's opponents in single-A had trouble making solid contact, but the more advanced competition wasn't fooled. As Gee pitches in AAA, and maybe later the majors, he'll face the basic problem for all soft-tossers--how to balance throwing strikes and getting shelled. Whether or not this paradox keeps Gee out of the major-league rotation will largely depend on whether he can maintain his extreme homerun-suppression.

Fun With Comps

Scott Boras says: Steve Trachsel

This is probably the extent of Gee's upside. He's similar to Trachsel in size, and doesn't yet have a put-away pitch as effective as Trachsel's splitter. The minor league track record is telling though. Like Gee, Trachsel was drafted out of college to little fanfare, but thanks to very good command and decent strikeout totals, he moved up the ladder fairly quickly. He would pitch a full and effective Triple-A season at age 22 before beginning his major league career the following season. Though he couldn't sustain his peripheral rates from the minors, he still managed to be an effective pitcher for quite a long time, throwing at least 170 innings per season for nine straight years (1996-2004). If Gee is to carve himself out a sustained major league career, this is very likely what it will look like.

Impartial Observer says: Julian Tavarez

Hey, if the whole starter thing doesn't work out, there's always the bullpen. While Tavarez never had the success of Trachsel, he stayed around longer, partly because the Nationals are desperate, but mostly because of his willingness to work from the bullpen, often for years at a time. The extra MPH or two gained from shorter assignments could be the boost needed to keep the ball in the park and, often enough, in a fielder's glove.

Steve Phillips says: Nelson Figueroa

Not even Mr. Phillips can deny that if he so chooses, Gee could probably have a long and fruitful professional career, just not necessarily in the major leagues. Like Gee, Figgy's early professional career included a minor league path that looked like it could lead to back-end-starterdom. His strengths were lack of a glaring weakness, and he managed to throw enough strikes with his underwhelming stuff to put up pretty consistent numbers in Triple-A, though never any higher. He eventually moved on to the international scene, pitching Mexico, Taiwan, and Venezuela before returning to the American minor leagues and essentially resuming his career as a Triple-A hurler. If Gee never becomes a major league starter but wants to remain in professional baseball, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him explore alternative markets like this.

Conclusion

Much of Gee's value is tied into the fact that he's already made it as far as he has. If not for the injury, he'd look like a great candidate to be a useful back of the rotation type, and not much less. He'd go a long way towards making an addition like John Garland or Jason Marquis seem superfluous, even if Gee began the year back in Triple-A. In particular, he'd really help offset the risk in having Maine in the rotation. But because of the injury his future is a bit less clear. Almost every pitcher we'll discuss here has more upside than Gee, but few look as likely to have major league careers as Gee did before he was shut down. How much of that certainty remains is exactly what Gee will set out to prove in 2010.